DVD Insider #23 - DVD burning technology roundup from CES 2007. Is HD is better than DVD?

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DVD was significantly better than VHS for viewing. HD is better than DVD but is it so much better that people will open their checkbooks immediately? Analysts from IDC, Gartner, Enderle Group and others feel true volumes for HD won't arrive for at least 4-5 years because "good enough" viewing will be sufficient until present systems fail and prices of new products come down dramatically.

IDC and Enderle both note that the majority of the country (and globe) still don't have DVD burners or DVD recorders even though prices have come down to $50 and $200 respectively. Now that DVDR media is well under $1 and DL (8.5GB) media is just now approaching $6 people are still looking for the killer app that makes it imperative that they record an hour of standard def video.

The low-cost burners and media have some people practicing what they jokingly call "burn and return," they are the minority. Even more though are beginning to master the recording of TV favorites onto their HD and then have transferred them to DVDR. But most of the DVR users simply struggle with the technology so they can watch shows when they want to watch them and then overwrite older video content when the HD gets full. And with hard drives getting bigger and cheaper that is probably going to continue.

For those who plunk down $3,000-plus for a high def screen they will have to add another $1,000 - $2,000 for a high def DVR and $25-plus per BD or HD disc. But then they only be able to watch them on their set since most manufacturers agree that sales volumes won't become significant until sets are below $1,000, DVRs are below $500, and media gets down to $2-$3.

Put those costs on top of the standards "discussions" and it becomes easy to understand why research firms are looking to 2010 for widespread high def sales. By then, "everyone" will have a good/cheap DVDR/RW based system using single and double layer media so it will take another 3-5 years before high def recorders/burners replace present products.

By then we'll again have the next great solution ready to battle over.

But there were high points of CES as Samsung, HP and Sony had strong offerings of complete media center PC-based solutions. While the big hitters and many of the other firms at the show spun tales of end-to-end home entertainment packages. Of course when Microsoft's demo at Gates keynote went blue screen it cast a serious doubt about how easy and reliable these plug-and-play solutions really were right now.

Many of the CES attending firms took a more modular - one step at a time -- approach meeting our home entertainment needs. You know, a HD-based media server, wireless link to the TV/stereo, DVR ardware/software that accessed the cable box or satellite receiver and other parts of the puzzle.

In fact, according to market analysts at In-Stat people are only now beginning to understand how they can purchase and use the new DVRs with interactive program guides (Fig 1). While most consumers according to a recent CEA survey don't have an audio or video media server, it is a product they are interested in acquiring over the next 2-3 years.